For years, musical biopics struggled to cut through the noise, with many failing to land big numbers at the global box office and audiences growing wary of another “rise‑and‑fall” star story. The genre seemed to hit a wall, as biopic fatigue set in and even respected names failed to draw consistent crowds. Now, Michael is poised to upend that trend and prove audiences are still willing to show up for the right music‑driven drama.

The Michael Jackson biopic Michael is shaping up for one of the most formidable openings ever seen for a music‑driven drama, with early projections landing in the $70 million–plus range and possibly climbing higher as per Variety. The film is expected to play across close to 3,900 North American screens, with IMAX and other large‑format theaters reporting robust advance ticket sales that could push its debut beyond even the most optimistic early forecasts.

That would firmly place it ahead of past musical biopics such as Bohemian Rhapsody and Straight Outta Compton in terms of opening‑weekend performance. On the global stage, Michael is also looking at a major launch, with estimates suggesting it could pull in around $75 million–$80 million from more than 80 territories, helping it clear a combined worldwide opening of roughly $140 million–$150 million by the end of its first weekend.

The numbers are especially striking considering the film’s behind‑the‑scenes challenges, including reshoots, a steep production budget, and a last‑minute shift in how Jackson’s personal controversies are handled. Michael has established itself as one of the most expensive music biopics in history, with the extensive use of the pop phenom's catalog and lavish replications of his concerts as well, now awaiting post-release verdict.

The massive box office rollout is also pitted against the sharp initial reviews the biopic is garnering.

Critical backlash vs. box‑office heat for Michael

Michael has received largely negative reviews from major critics, with early tallies on Rotten Tomatoes adding up to a 27%, firmly in the “rotten” range. Several outlets have described the film as a glossy but emotionally shallow portrait that avoids the singer’s most controversial chapters, particularly the 1993 allegations, which were written into the original script but later removed at the Jackson estate’s request.

Critics argue that this sanitization weakens the narrative, leaving a safe, crowd‑pleasing concert‑heavy drama that feels more like a tribute reel than a probing character study. Others have praised Jaafar Jackson’s physical and vocal commitment to the role, as well as Colman Domingo’s layered performance as Joe Jackson, but say the screenplay fails to fully support such strong casting.

Some reviews also fault the film’s pacing and structural choices, noting that heavy reshoots and a changed third act leave the story feeling uneven. The critical drubbing makes the film’s projected $70 million–plus opening and global $140 million–$150 million debut all the more striking, underscoring how audience curiosity and fan loyalty can defy negative reviews at the box office.

What do you think of the box-office storm Michael is brewing? Let us know in the comments.

Written by

Pratham Gurung

Edited by

Adiba Nizami